Can Nvidia Maintain Its AI Dominance Over the Next Year

Nvidia’s rise has been nothing short of historic. The company that pioneered graphics processing is now the world’s most valuable corporation — worth roughly $4.5 trillion — thanks to its dominant position in artificial intelligence computing.

But after a multiyear surge and towering expectations, investors are asking a simple question:

Can Nvidia keep delivering market-crushing gains, or is a slowdown inevitable?

Growth is still strong — but the competitive landscape is shifting

In the first half of fiscal 2026 alone, Nvidia generated nearly $91 billion in revenue, with the data center division accounting for the vast majority of that. Extrapolated over a full year, the company could hit about $160 billion from AI data-center hardware.

That’s impressive — but market share tells another story.

Analysts estimate $267.5 billion will be spent globally on AI accelerators in 2025. If Nvidia brings in $160B, that suggests roughly 60% share — still leading, but down from its previous dominance.

And the pressure is mounting:

Broadcom recently landed a massive deal with OpenAI — enough hardware to power 10 gigawatts of AI compute from 2026–2029. One estimate suggests that contract alone could bring Broadcom $100 billion in revenue.

AMD was also chosen to supply chips to OpenAI, with deployment beginning next year — finally giving it a meaningful foothold in a market Nvidia once controlled outright.

Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are increasingly funding custom silicon, reducing reliance on Nvidia GPUs.

In short: Nvidia remains the king — but the kingdom is attracting ambitious challengers.

Wall Street’s crystal ball: gains, but not like before

Over the past year, Nvidia’s stock soared more than 30%. Analysts now expect a 19% gain over the next 12 months — based on a median price target of $215.

That cooling reflects two key investor concerns:

1️⃣ Slowing growth ahead
Revenue expansion could ease from ~58% this year to ~33% next year.

2️⃣ A premium valuation that leaves little margin for disappointment
Nvidia trades around 28× sales.
The Nasdaq Composite? 5.4× sales.

Any stumble — in demand, margins, or supply — could trigger a sharp correction.

Could Nvidia outperform anyway? Absolutely.

Nvidia isn’t standing still. Several growth engines remain powerful:

✅ Sovereign AI infrastructure
Countries investing in domestic AI compute could help this business more than double to $20B+ this year — and ramp further in 2026.

✅ Intel partnership
A recent $5B investment strengthens collaboration with Intel’s dominant server CPUs, improving Nvidia’s position in full-stack data center builds.

✅ Gaming rebound
Upgraded PC cycles and AI-enhanced features could reignite a once-stagnant segment.

✅ Automotive opportunities
A long-term software- and compute-driven market estimated at $300 billion.

And Nvidia’s own projection of $3–$4 trillion in global AI infrastructure spending by 2030 shows how early this transformation still is.

So, where will the stock be in 12 months?

Here’s the balanced outlook:

Base Case: High-teens gains next year, in line with analyst targets
Upside Case: New demand cycles and government spending trigger another breakout
Downside Case: Market share and margins slip → valuation compression

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Final Take

Nvidia remains the unmatched leader of the AI hardware revolution — but the easy dominance phase is over. Over the next year, the tug-of-war between slowing growth and explosive long-term demand will determine whether the stock can justify its astronomical valuation.

If you’re already invested? Holding tight still looks wise.
If you’re deciding whether to buy? Treat Nvidia as a long-term conviction play — not a short-term momentum trade.