If You Bought $150 of Rivian Stock at Its IPO, Here’s What It Would Be Worth Now

Rivian Automotive burst onto the public markets in November 2021 riding enormous enthusiasm for electric vehicles. But for early shareholders, the journey since then has been painful.

A soaring debut — then a harsh reality check

Rivian priced its IPO at $78 per share and immediately rocketed higher. Backing from Amazon and Ford helped fuel the hype, as did Rivian’s early start in production with its electric R1T pickup and R1S SUV. At its peak — just a week after going public — shares briefly traded above $172.

Fast-forward to today, and that momentum has completely reversed. Rivian shares now hover near $13 — over 80% below their high.

A $150 investment at the IPO would be worth roughly $25 today. Meanwhile, that same $150 placed into a broad U.S. market ETF would have grown to around $230.

Why the huge decline?

Rivian wasn’t ready to scale as fast as Wall Street expected.

The company ran into:

✅ Components shortages and factory shutdowns
✅ Rising costs from inflation and interest rate hikes
✅ Tougher competition across the EV industry

Production numbers tell the story:

Rivian made clear progress in 2023 — improving supplier relationships and designing more of its components in-house (like its Enduro drive units). But production growth has slowed again in the past year, and the business continues to burn billions while scaling.

Making matters worse, Ford abandoned a joint development plan and sold most of its Rivian stake in 2022. Amazon has remained a partner and shareholder, but the EDV delivery-van program alone isn’t enough to move the stock.

Looking ahead: The R2 is the make-or-break moment

The company blames current weakness on the broader slowdown in EV demand — lower subsidies, higher borrowing costs, and customers prioritizing affordability.

Rivian is counting on its R2 SUV, set to launch in 2026, to broaden its audience with lower pricing and more efficient manufacturing. The company also entered a partnership with Volkswagen to co-develop future EV software and vehicle platforms — a move that could lower costs and accelerate development.

Wall Street’s expectations reflect cautious optimism:

To hit those numbers, Rivian needs to:

• Ramp production of the R2 successfully
• Stabilize R1 sales
• Open its new Georgia plant to triple capacity by 2028

That’s a tall order — but not impossible.

Is Rivian stock a bargain?

At roughly 2x expected 2026 revenue, Rivian is cheap compared to Tesla, which trades at nearly 13x. That doesn’t mean Rivian is destined to catch up — only that expectations have finally come back down to Earth.

What does that mean for investors?

✅ There is upside if Rivian executes well
❌ The company still hasn’t proven it can reach sustainable profitability
⚠️ Expect volatility — especially around R2 launch milestones

Bottom line: Rivian remains a speculative EV bet. If you believe the company’s R2 rollout, cost-cutting efforts, and Volkswagen partnership will pay off, buying a small position now could reward long-term patience.

If not? The market already showed what happens when expectations get ahead of reality.